by Scott Swail

I was going to explain where the catchphrase above came from, but I now realize that the show, “To Tell the Truth,” has been back on air for the past several years. Who knew? Not me.

It still serves as a fitting statement about the 2024-25 NHL Winnipeg Jets. This year’s roster looks amazingly like last year’s roster. The forward lineup is eerily similar to the one set up last October. Actually, it is—to a man. A few new names on defense, and a new backup goalie, but the 2024-25 team is a redux of the 2023-24 team.

One year ago, I predicted that Winnipeg would miss the playoffs; not by much, but I didn’t see them making the top 16. I was wrong. Everyone was wrong, to be fair.

The team started October slightly above .500, posting 10 points in 9 games (4-3-2). A slightly better November put them at 26 points in 22 games (12-8-2). However, they only lost one game in all of December and jumped to a .686 average (22-9-4) and found themselves one point behind Colorado in the standings. They dipped back slightly in January but rebounded in February, this time two points back of Colorado. As most of us remember, by April, the Jets led the Division and finished fourth in the league with 110 points.

We probably didn’t see this coming because the roster of the Jets was largely unimpressive. Sure, Winnipeg has the best goalie in hockey, and the team boasts Scheifele, Connor, Ehlers, and Morrissey. We added Gabriel Vilardi, but a year ago we didn’t know what type of player he was. We learned pretty quickly how good he can be when he isn’t on IR. But beyond the players mentioned, the rest are largely average or below and strike little fear into opponents. Lowry is on that bubble, of course. I argue that some teams fear him plenty. And as a first-year captain of the team, he filled the shoes admirably.

Still, overall, the roster is lackluster with fails from stacking premier-talent players. Even so, Winnipeg rocked the league in 2023-24 with suffocating defense backed by stellar goaltending by Hellebuyck, who rightfully went on to earn the Vezina for the second time and also earned the Jennings Trophy for playing at least 25 games and having the least number of goals scored against. The Jets allowed only 199 goals against last season. Beyond Florida, no other team was close. The San Jose Sharks allowed 132 more goals than Winnipeg.

Now, on opening day for the Winnipeg Jets, we find a roster that is almost identical to last year’s. How will Winnipeg fare this year?

Just like last year, I’m not convinced this team makes the playoffs. I just don’t think they are that good on paper or on ice. And as with last year, I sincerely hope my prediction is way off base. But it is unlikely they earn 110 points this year. There are two major reasons for this. First, other teams in the Central got a lot better this summer, especially Nashville, where Dauphin’s own Barry Trotz orchestrated the steal of the summer by signing Steven Stamkos from the Tampa Bay Lightning. While Stammer is already a future HOFer, he is only 34 year and has a lot left in the tank. Heck, he scored 41 goals last year. Eight mill a year for Stamkos; I’d take that acquisition in a second. Nashville, on paper, looks like a Stanley Cup team. Other teams in the Central improved as well. Utah, formerly Arizona, could be a surprise. Arizona was building a decent team and Utah used the summer well. St. Louis attracted some new talent, and both Dallas and Colorado look strong. Last week The New York Times called Winnipeg’s offseason “Arguably the Worst in the League.”

The second reason for the prediction is that Winnipeg simply doesn’t have the talent to win big. They outproduced last season and won many games that they probably would have lost if their wasn’t some subsonic shift in the hockey world that no one felt, heard, or saw. It is unlikely to happen this year. The games they won they will lose in many cases. You can’t keep rolling sevens year after year. It takes talent to keep beating the odds. This team faces poor odds. Most pundits or experts pick Winnipeg to lose a few steps this year due primarily to their lack of talent comparatively to other teams in the league. The Jets lost Rutger McGroarty and, while the acquisition of Brayden Yager was a decent return, he is a year beyhind McGroarty in development. We won’t see Yager until October 2025. Winnipeg GM Kevin Cheveldayoff, incredibly in his 14th season as GM of the Jets, stated after the McGroarty trade: “If I’m a young player in the Jets organization today, I’m pretty excited about the opportunities that are in front of me and I’m working pretty hard in the offseason to make sure that I take full advantage.” In the end, not one young player made the opening night team for Winnipeg. Thus, for all the boasting about a youth wave, the water remains flat. Perhaps McGroarty was right about requesting a move to Pittsburgh.

This is a terrible problem for Winnipeg because it showcases relatively poor drafting over the past several years, and perhaps more importantly, the loss of first and second round choice through trades. Many of the higher-end junior and AHL players in the Jets arsenal are on the smaller side at sub-six foot altitudes. Looking at the youth in the system, it is hard to pick which players will end up as NHLers. As a unit, they look a lot like a bunch of Nic Petans. Talented, but just not talented or sizable to make a solid entry into the NHL. Yager went back to Junior, but he’s only 19. Brad Lambert didn’t make opening night but expect to see him when Perfetti gets hurt. Heinola is hurt again (he must have done something awfully wrong in his previous life because he is snakebitten). Chibrikov may see some games with the big club this year, as will Elias Salomonsson. But none of these players strike fear into the opposition. We don’t know if Winnipeg will ever see Zhilkin, Lucius, Barlow, Milic, or Bauer in the lineup. Kevin He made a strong showing in the pre-season but there is no guarantee he makes the “Show” either. There is simply a lot of uncertainty with the depth of the Winnipeg Jets.

Taken in sum, the future doesn’t look overly rosy for Winnipeg. The hope is that they do better than last year, but the evidence suggests they will retreat. More concerning is the outyears for Winnipeg. For this team to improve, Chevy will have to make a few trades, likely costing us more draft picks. Not sure how this plays out.

It’s kind of tough to start the season against last year’s Stanley Cup losers, the Edmonton Oilers, but that’s what it is tonight. The first month of the season is actually a decent schedule for Winnipeg. A nice win tonight would help lift the confidence of the team and of the fan base. But let’s revisit this conversation December 31st.

By then we’ll have some idea of which team stood up.